探秘分析师所做的收益预测报告

Introduction期刊简介

Journal of Business Finance & Accounting发表了有关会计，公司财务，公司治理及其接口的高质量研究论文。JBFA每年赞助一次资本市场会议，并每年在特刊上发表会议论文。JBFA 自1974年以来就已出版，并被列入《社会科学引文索引》和《当前内容/社会与行为科学》。

它是澳大利亚商学院理事会（ABDC）质量期刊列表中的高质量期刊（A *）。

高级编辑

Peter F. Pope，博科尼大学和伦敦经济学院

Andrew Stark，曼彻斯特商学院

Journal of Business Finance & Accounting publishes high quality research papers in accounting, corporate finance, corporate governance and their interfaces. JBFA sponsors an annual Capital Markets Conference, with conference papers being published in a Special Issue each year. JBFA has been published since 1974 and is included in the Social Science Citation Index and Current Contents/Social & Behavioral Sciences.

It is a high quality journal (A*) in the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) Quality Journal List.

Senior Editors

Peter F. Pope, Bocconi University and London School of Economics

Andrew Stark, Manchester Business School

分析师的收益预测报告以及收入和支出的质量

帕维尔·比林斯基   卡斯商学院

迈克尔·伊姆斯   圣塔克拉拉大学

摘要

我们将收益质量分解为收入和支出质量，并考察它们与分析师倾向于用收入预测来补充收益预测之间的关系。当支出质量较低时，分析师会向I/B/E/S报告更多收入预测，以弥补其收益估算的准确性，这与支出质量呈正相关。支出质量与收益预测的准确性无关，因此，当费用质量较低时，收益预测对评估公司变得越来越有用。当收入质量低下时，分析师报告的收益预测更少，因为收益和收益预测准确性都会随着收入质量的下降而下降。为了控制内生性，我们使用公司固定效应来控制公司之间未观察到的时不变异质性，工具变量回归和变化回归。

关键字

收入和收入预测准确性，联合收入和收入，预测问题，价格反应，收益成分的质量

结论

本研究将收益质量分解为收入和费用质量，以检验在向I/B/E/S报告时，收益质量与分析师倾向于用收入预测来补充盈余预测之间的关系。我们证明出，低收入和支出质量低下会增加收益预测的难度，并降低分析师EPS预测的准确性和价值相关性，进而增加投资者对收益信息的依赖和需求。 分析师通过在支出质量较低时发布相对更多的收益预测来响应投资者对收益预测的需求，因为收益预测准确性不会随支出质量而变化。当收入质量下降时，收益预测准确性会下降，这降低了分析师报告收益预测的动机。

IBES：搜集股票研究分析员对主要上市公司未来盈利的预测，并编制报告的系统

Analyst revenue forecast reporting and the quality of revenues and expenses

Pawel Bilinski   Cass Business School

Michael Eames   Santa Clara University

Abstract

We decompose earnings quality into revenue and expense quality and examine their associations with analyst propensity to supplement their earnings forecasts with revenue forecasts. Analysts report more revenue forecasts to I/B/E/S when expense quality is low to compensate for the low accuracy of their earnings estimates, which has a positive association with expense quality. Expense quality is unassociated with revenue forecast accuracy, thus revenue forecasts become increasingly useful for valuing firms when expense quality is low. Analysts report fewer revenue forecasts when revenue quality is low because both earnings and revenue forecast accuracy decline as revenue quality deteriorates. To control for endogeneity, we use firm-fixed effects to control for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity across firms, instrumental variables regressions and regression in changes.

KEYWORDS

earnings and revenue forecast accuracy, joint earnings and revenue, forecast issues, price reaction, quality of earnings components

CONCLUSIONS

This study decomposes earnings quality into revenue and expense quality to examine their associations with the analyst propensity to supplement their earnings forecasts with revenue forecasts when reporting to I/B/E/S. We document that low revenue and expense quality increase earnings forecasting difficulties and reduce the accuracy and value relevance of analyst EPS forecasts, which in turn increases investors’ reliance on and demand for revenue information. Analysts respond to investor demand for revenue forecasts by issuing relatively more revenue forecasts when expense quality is low as revenue forecast accuracy does not vary with expense quality. Revenue forecast accuracy falls when revenue quality declines, which reduces analysts incentives to report revenue forecasts.